July saw Class 8 truck sales at a ‘snail’s pace’; new orders even slower

As far as truck sales go, June was a decent month. In June 2025, more new Class 8 trucks were sold in the U.S. than in June 2024. It was the first (and only) time so far this year that Class 8 sales exceeded the corresponding month of 2024. It was unusual because analysts had been predicting a drop off in sales.

In July, the drop-off began in earnest.

In July, U.S. sales of new Class 8 trucks totaled 18,838, according to data received from Omdia (formerly Wards Intelligence). Despite being the second-best sales month of the year to date, sales fell from June totals by 7.6% — and they were down from July 2024 totals by 12%.

For the first seven months of the year, reported sales of 126,668 were 6.1% behind the 2024 pace at the same point. They’re expected to fall farther behind in coming months.

Analysts, such as those at ACT Research and FTR Transportation Intelligence have pulled back on sales projections for the remainder of the year. While actual sales have been somewhat stronger than expected, ordering of new trucks has weakened considerably.

ACT President and Senior Analyst Kenny Vieth blamed the ACT reduced projection on “weak carrier profitability and still-tractionless freight rates, expected tariff-driven goods inflation, a freight air pocket likely following the goods pull-forward in the first half of 2025, and uncertainty surrounding U.S. economic policy and the status of the EPA’s low NOx Clean Truck regulation.”

At FTR, Dan Moyer, senior analyst, commercial vehicles, explained the situation: “Ongoing tariff volatility and broader economic and truck freight market sluggishness continue to negatively impact the Class 8 market, driving a substantial 30% year-over-year decline in year-to-date net orders.”

Moyer also mentioned tariffs and the EPA’s NOx standards, saying, “As a result, many fleets are delaying commercial vehicle equipment investments. Meanwhile, continued record-high inventory levels are placing additional downward pressure on Class 8 production.”

July sales were at a snail’s pace, particularly for the vocational segment.

July is typically a slow month for new truck orders because the next year’s models are usually introduced in August; however, July 2025 was even slower than usual.

September is most often the biggest month of the year for new truck orders, so we’ll have a better idea of the final 2025 market once those numbers are in.

The vocational Class 8 segment of trucking seems to be impacted more than the freight-hauling segment. According to Carter Vieth, ACT research analyst, orders for trucks destined for trash, dump, concrete and other vocational uses were down 14% in July.

“Vocational orders continue to flounder on a troika of headwinds,” he explained, citing the changing EPA NOx rules, slowdowns in housing, construction and manufacturing, and tariff-related cost uncertainty.

Another factor is that all the cash made available through the Biden Administration’s Infrastructure Investment and Jobs and Inflation Reduction acts has run its course. Firms that bought new equipment in preparation for infrastructure and other projects can now hold up on purchases.

Sales of used trucks and new trailer orders saw improvement.

On the used Class 8 market, same-dealer retail sales volumes rose by 5% in July, perhaps due to buyers avoiding the price increases and uncertainty of the new truck market.

“The market continued to outperform historical seasonality, which called for a scant 0.5% month-over-month increase,” said Steve Tam, vice president at ACT.

Fewer trucks were sent to auction and wholesale transactions declined as well, as dealers were able to move their own stock.

Compared with 2024, the price of the average used Class 8 truck sold has increased by 14% while both the average age (3%) and average mileage (3%) have declined.

Orders for new trailers are running 23% higher than at the same point in 2024, according to Jennifer McNealy, director of commercial vehicle market research and publications at ACT Research.

“At this point, weaker intake continues to be expected through at least mid-third quarter when more of the industry’s 2026 order books open,” she said.

FTR’s Moyer pointed out that even though trailer orders are running 23% higher than last year, “volumes remain well below the 10-year July average of 14,856.” Order cancellations accounted for 17% of the July total as both monthly orders and total trailer build in the U.S. are down.

Moyer pointed out that higher tariffs on most U.S. trade partners kicked in on August 7, which will likely push order numbers lower in spite of the new model year trailers being introduced.

Mack and Volvo saw the biggest gains in new-truck sales.

Freightliner and Western Star were responsible for the two largest new truck sales declines in July from June numbers. At 5,532, Freightliner sold 2,412 fewer Class 8 trucks on the U.S. market in July, a decline of 30.4% from June. Western Star’s 1,056 represented a drop of 80 trucks (7%).

On a percentage basis, Mack (+22.4%) and Volvo (+16%) were the biggest gainers.

Despite introduction of its new VNL and VNR models, Volvo Truck’s year-to-date sales sit 23.8% behind 2024 sales for the same period. That’s the largest gap of any of the major OEMs. Volvo’s share of the new Class 8 sales market has declined from 10.5% at the end of July 2024 to 8.5% at the same point of this year.

Volvo-owned Mack Truck, with a 12.4% increase in sales for 2025 to date, now sits only 0.2% behind Volvo for share of the new, Class 8 market.

Peterbilt was the only other manufacturer to see a decline in July over June sales, selling 42 fewer trucks for a drop of 1.4%. Kenworth gained enough to keep PACCAR in positive territory with sales of 3,138, up 5.7% from June.

International sales of 2,309 in July were 0.8% higher than in June. For the year to date, International sales are up by the same (0.8%) amount.

As for market share, Mack Truck is the biggest gainer, now holding 8.3% of U.S. new Class 8 sales. That’ up 1.4% from the same point last year. Western Star is up 1%, holding 5.5% of the U.S. market. International’s 10.8% of sales represents a gain of 0.7%. Those gains came at the expense of market share declines by Volvo (-2%), Peterbilt (-0.9%) and Kenworth (-0.2%).

Without changes in tariffs or other factors driving new truck prices higher, expect sales for the rest of 2025 to run behind last year’s pace.

Cliff Abbott is an experienced commercial vehicle driver and owner-operator who still holds a CDL in his home state of Alabama. In nearly 40 years in trucking, he’s been an instructor and trainer and has managed safety and recruiting operations for several carriers. Having never lost his love of the road, Cliff has written a book and hundreds of songs and has been writing for The Trucker for more than a decade.

Credits