Class 8 truck sales stronger than expected in August as inventories pile up

U.S. sales of new Class 8 trucks remained stronger than expected in August, according to data received from Wards Intelligence.

Manufacturers reported sales of 20,674 trucks, topping the 20,000 mark for the second time this year. That number was down 3.4% from July sales of 21,398, however — and trailed August 2023 sales by 11.4%.

Despite the declines, however, truck sales have exceeded expectations for the second half of 2024.

On the North American market, 26,500 Class 8 trucks were sold, 8.9% fewer than August 2023 numbers, as reported by ACT Research.

“The decline from July’s unseasonably high sales indicates the industry is on the path to normalization,” Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst at ACT, said in a Sept. 12 release.

One issue that’s impacting production is inventory.

Manufacturers are still building, even as production outpaces ordering.

The result is that dealer lots are filling with unsold units. Body manufacturers — like dump, concrete or trash unit builders — have unsold inventory piling up.

Additionally, August is traditionally a transition month when builders switch their order books over to the next model year.

“With August order and build volumes pushing backlogs to their annual nadir (and multi-year lows), ‘order season’ has not been so important since the fall of 2016,” Vieth said. “Excessive inventories cloud both the front and back ends of the demand arc.

“A year ago, the total Class 8 inventory was 61,800 units,” he continued. “At the end of July 2024, the Class 8 inventory was a record 88,800 units — an increase of 27,000 units year over year. We are sitting in the lull before a hoped-for sustained surge as ‘order season’ gets underway.”

FTR Intel data reported 13,400 orders for August, about 16% fewer than in August 2023. Still, FTR reported a total of 271,000 orders for Class 8 trucks in the past 12 months.

“OEMs this month faced a somewhat mixed market, though overall conditions were stable,” said Dan Moyer, senior analyst-commercial vehicles for FTR. “The conventional market outperformed the vocational sector, driving most of the m/m improvement. Despite stagnant freight markets, fleets continue to invest in new equipment, albeit at a slower pace.”

Moyer also addressed inventory.

“Pressure on OEMs to reduce production rates is mounting,” he said.

Excess capacity in the freight market has delayed rate increases for well over a year now. The extra trucks are coming out of the market slowly, but lower prices for used equipment are enticing some drivers to buy trucks and get back into the hauling business.

Pre-buying to beat the EPA’s 2027 model-year regulations expected to increase.

One factor that should show increasing impact is pre-buying to mitigate the impact of 2027 model-year efficiency and emissions standards from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

Concerned about expected cost increases — up to $30,000 per truck — and wary of the dependability of the new technology, buyers are expected to buy more 2025 and 2026 models. For fleets that replace hundreds of trucks each year, the savings incurred by buying early can be tremendous.

The downside, of course, is that an economic downturn could result in new trucks parked and waiting for freight, as it did in the 2008-2009 recession.

Trailer orders have plummeted.

According to Jennifer McNealy, director of commercial vehicle market research and publications for ACT Research, trailer orders have seen a 27% contraction over last year.

“It is important to remember that for orders, we remain in the weakest months of the annual cycle,” she said. “While we do see fleets starting to make more money later this year — thereby increasing their ability to purchase equipment — that improvement is off a very low base as carrier profits in the first half of 2024 were at levels not seen since 2010.”

Reports from individual OEMs were mixed.

As for the individual manufacturers, Western Star saw the largest increase in month-over-month sales by percentage. Sales of 1,031 were 16.5% better than July sales of 885 — and the first time the company has reported sales of over 1,000 in a month. Compared with August 2023, sales are up a healthy 42.8%, and the company has grown from 2.8% of the U.S. Class 8 market to its current 4.6%.

Western Star’s much bigger sibling, Daimler-owned Freightliner, reported 7,654 units sold in August, up 1.2% from July but down 6.2% from August 2023. The company is responsible for 36.1% of the Class 8 trucks sold in the U.S. in 2024.

Navistar — which recently rebranded as International — saw increased sales of 2,612 units in August, 14.1% better than July sales. Compared to August 2023, however, sales were down 27.2%. For the year to date, Navistar sales have declined by 37.4%, the largest decline of any of the OEMs.

Kenworth sales of 3,119 represented a decline of 10.6% from July and a 15.5% drop from August 2023 sales. For the year to date, Kenworth lags 4.4% behind 2023 sales — not bad when the industry average decline is 13.6%.

Peterbilt’s numbers are similar, with 3,115 units reported sold in August, down 11.9% from July and down 9.9% from August 2023. Year to date, Peterbilt’s U.S. sales are down just 1.2% from last year’s pace, well ahead of the industry average.

Volvo sales of 1,735 in August were down 18.9% from July and 18.5% from August 2023. Sales at Volvo are about 10% behind last year’s pace for the first eight months of the year.

Mack Trucks reported sales of 1,391 in August, down 6% from July and down 13% from August 2023. Year to date, the company has reported sales that are 9.6% behind last year’s pace.

The industry is waiting to see the future of internal combustion engines.

In news related to future sales, a Sept. 19 online presentation hosted by the Engine Technology Forum claimed the transition to electric vehicles is not the fait accompli that many think it is.

Advances in internal combustion engine (ICE) technology and developments in alternative fuels could allow the transportation industry to achieve more efficiency and fewer emissions faster than transitioning to electric motors.

Hydrogen can be burned in ICEs, some with minimal modifications. Renewable biofuels produce fewer emissions when burned, and advances in engine technology can reduce those even further. Soybeans, in particular, were touted for their ability to produce 30 pounds of protein and 22 pounds of carbohydrates for each gallon of biodiesel, helping to increase the world’s food supply.

It’s possible the ICE will be around for many years, and the muted purr of an electric engine may be a characteristic of trucks far into the future.

Cliff Abbott is an experienced commercial vehicle driver and owner-operator who still holds a CDL in his home state of Alabama. In nearly 40 years in trucking, he’s been an instructor and trainer and has managed safety and recruiting operations for several carriers. Having never lost his love of the road, Cliff has written a book and hundreds of songs and has been writing for The Trucker for more than a decade.

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