New Class 8 truck sales dropped sharply in June, but not enough to relieve overcapacity

June U.S. sales of new Class 8 trucks fell 24.7% from the level seen in June 2023, according to data received from Wards Intelligence. Total reported sales of 18,134 trucks brought the year-to-date total to 113,567 trucks, 16.4% behind last year’s pace.

The long-predicted sales decline is beginning to pick up steam and orders for new trucks are finally slowing as the wait for new equipment continues to decline.

FTR Transportation Intelligence reported preliminary North American Class 8 net orders at 13,100 for June, the lowest month of the year so far. Previous months, however, have been higher than corresponding months last year, so the June decline won’t mean much unless following months are also low.

Truck orders typically fall off in June anyway as some carriers choose to wait until orders for next year’s model are accepted by manufacturers, typically in August.

At the same time that orders are falling, inventory levels that include trucks at dealerships, in transit and those at truck body manufacturers such as trash, dump, tank and so on, have risen to record levels.

“On ACT’s calculated basis, the Class 8 inventory rose to an all-time high close to 92,500 units in June, versus the 85,400 units reported,” said Kenny Vieth, president and senior analyst at ACT Research. “Our calculated inventory surpasses August 2019 on the ‘we’ve got an inventory problem’ list.”

High inventories may help hold down pricing for buyers, as dealers might be more willing to offer deals; however, the tightened credit market won’t help. Credit is harder to come by as creditors, still smarting from defaulted loans that occurred when record high freight rates crashed, have generally increased down payment amounts while toughening credit requirements. Buyers that are able to find financing are paying higher interest rates, too.

So, what’s the good news?

The good news is that slower sales of new trucks will help ease the industry’s overcapacity issue.

As the number of trucks available to haul freight shrinks, competition among shippers looking for transportation for their products increases, driving freight rates higher. While better rates would certainly be attractive to truckers, it will take more months of reduced truck sales to see it happen.

But there’s a catch.

Some buying activity is attributed to “pre-buying” — stocking up on equipment to avoid the cost increases and potential maintenance issues expected for the 2027 model year when new EPA standards for mileage and emissions go into effect.

While buying earlier model trucks may help carriers avoid cost issues, those new trucks also delay the return to a balanced freight market by adding to the current overcapacity issue. Freight rates won’t go up until truck numbers come down.

Both ACT and FTR commented that sales of vocational trucks (those equipped with dump, trash, concrete and other body types) actually increased in June. Since those trucks won’t be running on the highways hauling OTR freight, that’s good for the capacity issue.

On the used truck market, ACT Research reported a 2% decline in same-dealer sales from May and a 4% decline from June 2023. At the same time, the price of the average Class 8 used truck has declined by 20% in the past year; that same average truck Is also 3% younger and has 3% fewer miles. That’s good news for used truck buyers, if they can qualify for financing.

“A lack of traction in freight and freight rate improvement, coupled with still-high interest rates, remains the largest hurdles to better used truck sales performance,” said Steve Tam, ACT’s vice president and senior analyst, pointing out that used truck sales are typically “lackluster” in July but tend to increase in August.

What are the top sellers?

Individual truck manufacturers — with one exception — are selling fewer trucks this year. That exception is Western Star. With reported sales of 5,176 trucks for the year, the company is 40.9% ahead of its pace last year.

Freightliner, sibling builder to Western Star, isn’t doing as well on a percentage basis. The company has reported U.S. sales of 40,933 Class 8 trucks in 2024, down 22.7% from nearly 53,000 at the halfway point of last year. While Freightliner still holds a commanding lead with its 36% share of the new Class 8 market in the U.S., they’ve lost 2.9% of their market share so far this year.

Navistar (International) has lost even more market share. At the mid-point of 2023, the company held 14.1% of the U.S. market for Class 8 trucks, falling to 14.0% at year end. As of June 2024, their share of the market has dropped to 9.9% as total Class 8 sales declined from 19,145 to 11,228 from mid-2023 to mid-2024. International sales have declined by 41.4% from last year’s level, the highest decline of any manufacturer.

Kenworth and Peterbilt combined (PACCAR) are responsible for 32% of the new Class 8 market in the U.S. this year. Together they reported sales of 36,335 units, compared to Freightliner’s 40,933. Kenworth’s 17,706units are running 5.4% behind sales of last year (that’s still considerably better than the 16.4% decline of the industry as a whole). Peterbilt, on a percentage basis, is doing even better. Sales of 18,629 Petes are down just 0.9% from last year’s pace as the OEM has gained 2.6% of the market share.

Both Volvo and Mack have experienced sales declines but both companies still managed to beat the industry average. Volvo sales of 11,943 are down 11.6% from the mid-point of 2023, but the company has increased its share of the U.S. Class 8 market by 0.6%. Mack sales of 7,859 are 11.8% behind last year’s mid-point but are still good for a 0.4% increase in share.

Tiny OEM Hino, known mostly for Class 5-7 cabover straight trucks used for local deliveries, has increased sales of its Class 8 tractor to 93 units after reporting sales of just 7 last year. Since the Hino models are not sleeper equipped, they are mostly used for local and regional applications.

Cliff Abbott is an experienced commercial vehicle driver and owner-operator who still holds a CDL in his home state of Alabama. In nearly 40 years in trucking, he’s been an instructor and trainer and has managed safety and recruiting operations for several carriers. Having never lost his love of the road, Cliff has written a book and hundreds of songs and has been writing for The Trucker for more than a decade.

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